USD/JPY surged to a 10-month high as yen weakness and rising FX intervention risk persisted. Near-term momentum pointed to a possible bearish turn below 155.30, with key support eyed around 154.75, 154.20, and 153.65.
Overview
The yen has weakened notably against the dollar over the past month, with USD/JPY gaining roughly 3% while the broader US Dollar Index rose about 0.9% over the same window. Technical themes have formed near-term signals suggesting waning upside momentum and potential for a corrective move if 155.30 fails to hold as a pivot.
Recent Price Action
Prices moved above the 155.00 level on Monday, 17 November 2025, after a low of 152.82 on 7 November 2025, and traded up to intraday highs around 155.38 on 18 November 2025, marking a 10-month high. The strength has raised concerns about rapid yen depreciation and potential verbal or eventual FX intervention by authorities.
Key Risks
- The BoJ–government dynamic remains a focal point. A shift toward more accommodative policy could support the yen, while further divergence between policy paths may keep USD/JPY buoyant.
- Intervention risk remains elevated as USD/JPY tests pivotal levels near 155.3, with traders watching for any policy signals or statements from Japanese authorities.
- Short-term technicals show a bearish divergence in momentum indicators, increasing the likelihood of a minor reversal if 155.30 holds as resistance.
Support and Targets
- Near-term support: 154.75, then 154.20, and 153.65 (20-day moving average).
- Resistance: 155.30 as a key short-term pivot; a break above could re-extend the rally toward higher levels, while failure around 155.30 invites a pullback.
Conclusion
The USD/JPY setup suggests a potential minor top around 155.30 with risk of a bearish reversal toward the 154.20/153.65 zone if the pair cannot sustain above the 155.30 hurdle. Monitor BoJ-government communications and any FX-market interventions for confirmation of the next move.
Disclaimer: Market conditions can change rapidly; the above reflects current technical and fundamental considerations.